Future responses to environment-related food self-insufficiency, from local to global

Abstract In the coming decades, communities may become exposed to local food self-insufficiency due climate change, land degradation and scarcity. Rapid population growth exacerbate this. To support mitigating policies, answers are needed following two research questions: (i) Where what extent will environment-related occur or increase over period from 2015 2050 (ii) How respond increased self-insufficiency? Potential responses agricultural expansion, intensification, import, migration, starvation violent conflict. Answering these questions is hampered for different reasons. A persistent debate ongoing on whether environmentally induced deficit cause migration conflict at all. Although a clear relationship assumed as self-evident by many scholars politicians, yet no convincing evidence has been found, in contrast relevance of socioeconomic factors. Moreover, lack consistent accurate data supply demand hampers mapping present future. this article, we explore difficulties find between deficit, conflict, propose test an operational methodology that does provide preliminary necessary conditions approach . The results presented maps tables plausible 2050. Over period, roughly doubles well number people living favour starvation, mostly caused significant one hand—hence side—and stagnating even slightly declining production other. contrast, self-sufficiency stays high constant global scale.